Freeform Jazz Exploration

Blogging again. If Katie can do it, so can I. Challenge accepted.

When Nigel Tufnel quits Spinal Tap in mid-tour, the rest of the band is left high and dry before a performance in which they are the second act on a bill behind a puppet show. Unable to perform almost any of their regular set without Tufnel, the remaning band members decide that their only option is a "free form jazz exploration". (You need to watch that clip. YouTube won't let me embed it but it's worth the click.)

The last time I tried to do this blog, I imposed a rigid structure on myself, blogging three times a week on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, writing specifically about X, Y and Z. That experiment last a about ten weeks before I couldn't deal with the strain of trying to post 1500 words three times a week. This time: no rules except post something every day whether it be a link, a picture, a song, whatever. In other words, a jazz odyssey.

As no one reads this blog anyway, I have nothing to lose. And nothing to gain either, really, except maybe it will be fun.

Hawks game tonight. Sharp is out, the rookies are in.

I like Hayes A LOT. What a beast that kid is, he's like Bryan Bickell if Bickell learned how to use his size and um, you know, play hockey. I am undecided on Shaw although I see his grit and upside. And my old flame Ben Smith is back. In his first call-up earlier this season, Smith didn't play that well but was also coming into a tough set of circumstances. I think he will perform better this time.  I will always love Ben Smith.

The lineup is so jumbled right now I am concerned that there is just not enough chemistry on offense. On defense.... It's a mess after Keith and Seabrook. Leddy is playing too many minutes, Hammer is ineffectual, the bottom pair is getting three shifts a game. Yikes.

To acquire a solid number three or four defenseman and/or a second line center will require giving up a lot of picks and prospects. But that's why you acquire assets, to make moves. The Hawks need a lot of help right now to become a strong Cup contender. It will be interesting to see what Stan does.

PS: Why do the Hawks always play against teams in the first game after they have just fired their head coach? Happened against STL earlier this season and now Columbus. Those teams will of course come out fired up to play for the new guy. That blows.

I don't really care about the NBA but I enjoyed this:

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The NHL's Big Chance (Re-Post)

I originally posted this on my old blog in October 2010.  Now that labor negotiations between NFL owners and players have broken down it sounds like there is a good chance that the NFL may miss games this upcoming fall. I thought now might be a good time to re-examine some thoughts I had about how the NHL could benefit not only from an NFL lockout but from an NBA work stoppage as well.

***

I would never accuse Gary Bettman of being good at his job but as every hockey fan knows, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Eleven months from now, in September 2011, Bettman and the NHL have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to become very lucky indeed. The ironic twist to this story is that theNHL's good fortune would come at the expense of the NFL and NBA's labor issues.

The Collective Bargaining Agreements for both the NFL and NBA expire after the end of their respective 2010-11 seasons (February 28, 2011 for the NFL, June 30, 2011 for the NBA). The owners and unions in both leagues have been preparing for the possibility of a lockout for the last couple years. If it should come to pass that either the NFL or NBA starts canceling regular season games it would create a huge void on the sporting landscape. If they are smart (huge "If" there) NHL executives should be burning the midnight oil right now preparing strategies on how best to exploit the NFL and NBA'sproblems come next autumn.

Before I get ahead of myself on how the NHL might craft its' strategy, I wanted to see what the odds looked like for the likelihood that either league would actually lock out. I conducted an informal poll of people smarter than me and reached out to some NFL, NBA and sports media writers via e-mail and Twitter to gauge their feelings on whether regular season games would be missed next year. Here is what I found out:

Sam Farmer, NFL columnist for the LA Times, pegged the chances of an NFL lockout at 75%.

Dan Pompei, NFL columnist for the Chicago Tribune and The National Football Post wouldn't put a percentage on it but said "I think there is a decent chance the NFL will miss a game or two, but I wouldn't envision a prolonged work stoppage."

Jason Cole, who writes the Shutdown Corner (NFL) blog for Yahoo! Sports put the chances of missing games at 10%.

John Ourand, a media reporter for Sports Business Journal, wanted to make it clear that he had no inside knowledge but put the likelihood of a work stoppage in the NFL at 75% and said "Everyone I talk to is pessimistic."

Richard Deitsch, a media reporter for Sports Illustrated set the chance of the NFL missing games at 20% and the NBA at 10%. Deitsch also mentioned "Note that I'd always take Ourand's predictions on labor disputes well before mine."

Kelly Dwyer writes the Ball Don't Lie (NBA) blog for Yahoo! Sports and said "I'd be surprised if any games were missed, but I'd bet on a lockout from July through September."

Phil Taylor, who covers the NBA for Sports Illustrated says "I'd say NBA stoppage is 75% likely. Owners really want to roll back salaries, and players won't allow that without a fight. Once a work stoppage begins, I don't see either side backing down until regular season games are missed. 60 game season maybe."

Regarding the NBA's situation, the following is from an October 3, 2010 article in the Detroit Free Press by Vince Ellis.

But the league's labor situation is serious business, and Stuckey and other Pistonsacknowledged that fact. It took a more serious tone last week when Wizards owner Ted Leonsis told D.C.-area business leaders he expects the NBA to adopt a hard salary cap similar to the NHL's model.

In what might be a record for pro   sports leagues, he was hit with a $100,000 fine before the day was over by league commissioner David Stern for "unauthorized public comments regarding the league's collective bargaining negotiations."

 "We're negotiating, and that was one of our negotiating points," Stern said, "but collective bargaining is a negotiating process, and that was not something that Ted was authorized to say, and he will be dealt with for that lapse in judgment." 

Despite Stern's assertion, the term "cost certainty" has been bandied about by front-office types for some time. Cost certainty is definitely code for a hard cap. The league already has a salary cap, but it has been reported that the NBA   seeks to get rid of the myriad of exceptions the team has to go over it. Stern said the league is losing money, and the league office says a new economic plan is needed for future viability.

 But some say the exorbitant contracts tossed around this summer during free agency is proof that the league is doing fine. NBA union chief Billy Hunter has said that if the league insists on a hard cap, there will be a protracted labor battle. So when the current collective bargaining agreement expires June 30, the possibility looms that the league will call for a lockout, threatening the start of the 2011-12 season.

Please note that Ted Leonsis owns both the Washington Capitals (NHL) and the Washington Wizards (NBA). When the NHL owners and the NHL Players Association battled over the institution of a hard salary cap it cost the league the entire 2004-05 season. Could the same kind of work stoppage be on tap for the NBA in 2011? It certainly sounds possible.

All of that sets the table for me to try and read the tea leaves. It feels inevitable that either the NFL or NBA is going to miss regular season games next year. My personal opinion is that the NFL owners would have to be overcome by a monumental case of hubris to be willing to strangle the golden goose that is their league. The NBA has a recent history of missing regular season games (in 1998-99 the NBA played a 50 game season due to a lock out) and I am more inclined to believe that the NBA's players and owners are more arrogant than the NFL's.

So let's look the scenarios.

Scenario #1: NBA Plays a Partial Schedule, NFL Continues as Normal.

This is the one I think is most likely to occur. In this case, the blitzkrieg that is the NFL will roll on, crushing television ratings and advertising rates like so many Polands and Czechoslovakias. I don't see a lot of potential for the NHL here. Let's say that Phil Taylor is correct and that the NBA plays a shortened 60 game season. That would not leave much opportunity for the NHL to exploit NBA fans other than to offer an indoor sporting event at the same venues where they would normally watch basketball. Is there a crossover appeal between basketball and hockey fans? My gut says no. All the hockey fans I know could care less about the NBA and I imagine the inverse is true. One possible opportunity for the NHL in this situation is if an NBA lockout lasted past Christmas (the 50 game schedule in 1998 did not start until February 5). That would open the door for the NHL to poach Christmas Day off the NBA's television schedule. The NBA uses Christmas Day to kick off its' network television schedule with a double-header, promoting the league's biggest stars and rivalries (LAL-BOS, MIA-LAL, MIA-BOS).Traditionally, the NHL goes dark on Christmas. That tradition would need to be shelved in the service of widening exposure for the league. How do you feel about something like all the Original Six teams playing each other on a Christmas Day triple header (CHI-DET, MTL-TOR, NYR-BOS)? I think that sounds beyond fantastic. Not only would you have three great, traditional games on a national network, you would be able to use those games to promote the Winter Classic the following week on New Year's Day.

Scenario #2: NBA Cancels Season, NFL Continues as Normal.

This could help the NHL in a couple ways. Faced with the prospect of no basketball at all, I could see NHL teams picking up a few new season ticket holders and maybe a small bump in television ratings, especially on weeknights in December, January and February when hoops fans would be used to watching the NBA. I think most NBA fans would probably look to spend their money and television time on college hoops as an alternative rather than the NHL though.

Scenario #3: The NFL Cancels Anything

This is where things start to get interesting. If we get to a point where it looks like the NFL is going to start missing games and/or cancel the season the NHL needs to be ready to seamlessly fill the void. I believe the appeal of the NHL is much more closely aligned with an NFL fan than the NBA fan although I have no evidence to back that up (I did google it though).

The most important factor in all of this speculation is the timing. Not only are the NFL and NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreements expiring next spring, so are the NHL's television broadcasting rights agreements. When the NHL starts meeting with prospective bidders, one of their bargaining chips with the television executives should be the possibility of missed games in the NBA and NFL, especially the NFL.

Just as professional athletes have performance-based incentives in their contracts, I would propose the NHL do the same thing in their next broadcasting deal. For example, say the NFL starts canceling games, then the NHL should have some contractual language worked into the next broadcast rights agreement that they would receive a cut of the ads sold on games aired during the NFL's traditional time slots on Sundays and Monday.

Oh, yeah. I went there. In my opinion, the cornerstone of this whole thought experiment is based on Sundays. The NHL should be thinking about some kind of triple-header for every Sunday with games at 1:00, 4:00 and 8:00 ET. These would ideally be inter-divisional games, rivalry games, Original Six vs. Original Six games and rarely seen match-ups between Eastern and Western Conference teams (CHI-WAS, LA-PIT, VAN-BOS, etc.). From what I understand, watching sports on a Sunday is an American thing so I don't know how this would apply to Canada but as Grand Funk Railroad sang, "We're an American blog!"

But I digress.

One problem here is that NFL season starts in early September and the NHL season starts in Early October. The NFL would have to miss at least five or six weeks of games for the NHL to be able to start exploiting that situation. Just to be clear though, if the NHL was able to start broadcasting day games on NFL Sundays then they would be looking at the possibility of capturing a bigger audience for their product than anything in the league's history. Say your average national 1:00 or 4:00 NFL game gets between 10-15 million viewers. If the NHL could capture thirty percent of that audience, it would be record-breaking for regular season hockey.

Even if the NFL missed no games or a few games, it still might be an interesting experiment for a network to try and counter-program the NFL for a season with an NHL triple-header on Sundays. The hockey games might make a decent rating just based on the sloppy seconds, thirds and fourths over-flowing from the tens of millions of people watching football on Sundays. Although I admit I would still watch the Bears if they were head to head against the Hawks.

I will give the NHL credit for something they have done well (maybe because Bettman isn't involved in it) and that is its' advertising and promotions. Whoever the NHL's next broadcasting partner is, they will need to be willing to team up with the league and go all-in on pumping up the league, the rivalries and personalities on Sundays as an alternative to the NFL. If the NFL missed five or six weeks that would provide the NHL with more national exposure than it has ever gotten. The NHL and their broadcasting partner would need to hit a home run with an advertising campaign, something viral over the course of the summer leading into the fall. One thing I think the NHL consistently does right are its' commercials and online presence.

That's all I've got. It would take a lot of stars to line up properly for the NHL to benefit from any of these scenarios but I think work stoppages will happen for either the NBA or NFL and it behooves the NHL to be prepared to step in and satisfy the appetite of those fans with a game that is both faster and higher scoring than it has ever been while still maintaining its' traditions and rivalries.

PS: If you aren't already doing so, please follow me on Twitter @nCornick . Give me a couple weeks and if you think the stupid shit I tweet about is, well, shitty, please feel free to unfollow.